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Poland's "power economy" could surge by 3 percent in 2010, but not everyone is happy PDF Print E-mail
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Tuesday, 08 December 2009 12:08

Polish passport coverPoland may be Europe's only country to show positive economic growth in 2009, but now that other countries in western Europe are recovering from two years of savage downturn, the prosperity of the nation could increase three-fold, according to London embassy staff who spoke on Radio ORLA fm's "London Bridge" show this weekend.

"We have 1.1 percent economic growth this year and we should be proud of ourselves. But we think that as our neighbouring economies improve from the current economic problems, when Germany, France and Italy and Britain grow again, this will benefit Poland. This will automatically help our exports. We expect economic growth of 3.0 percent in 2010," said Krzysztof Trepczynski, head of the economics department at the Polish Embassy in London.

He said exports and investments had not been adversely affected by the global economic recession. Exports with Britain dropped by only 1.0 percent during the two-year economic crisis "and since September we have already begun to increase our exports. Probably by the first quarter of 2010 exports will return to pre-crisis levels."

Trepczynski said there were several factors for Poland's economic success. The country's banks were not exposed to the credit crisis in the USA. "Also our banking system is a new one. Our transition from central planning to a market economy started only in the 1990s. So even now mortgages are not as developed as in Britain. Polish indebtedness is not so high as Britain. And in the 1990s the (Leszek) Balcerowicz Plan also gave us a firm foundation for the economy."

Another guest on the radio show said that Poles were bringing their cautious attitude to debt with them to Britain and this was making them into successful business leaders in the UK.

"Poles are more cautious about loans and lending is more difficult to get back in Poland. They think twice about how they spend money and budget with their money," said Liz Walker, chairman of the Association of Polish Entrepreneurs and Companies in the UK..

"But I think Britain's economy is improving and Poles are bringing their business and borrowing ethics with them to the UK, and performing well. We are seeing Poles returning to the UK. Retailer Tesco in Britain has reported a 15 percent increase in sales of Polish products and there is no way that could all come just from British customers" she said.

But Walker warned that a glimmer of economic growth in Poland was not a reason for Poles to flock back to Poland en masse.

"It has been a lure for Poles to return to Poland having seen economic growth out there. But I think it is presently a market for investors. For workers to go back is perhaps too early. They need to know there is a secure labour market. The investors are required to create that climate," she said.

There were also problems developing in the Polish jobs market. The systematic drop in Polish unemployment which followed the country's admission to the European Union in 2004 has hit a plateau . Poland’s jobless rate in October amounted to 11 percent, nudging up from 10.9 percent the previous month. According to the Polish Labour Ministry, before the end of the year the unemployment rate should not exceed 12 percent. Nevertheless, this is an upward trend.

"Finding a job in Poland recently has not been easy from what I have heard anecdotally," said Walker.

London Bridge show host presenter George Matlock said: "It's not everyday that Poland has great PR from its economy. It's seeing positive growth. When was the last time we could call Poland a powerhouse? Actually you have to go back to 1979 - when Poland's gross domestic product was greater than that of western nation Portugal."

But Marcin Zientek, a financial adviser at Scottsdale Consulting in London said: "Whether people want to invest, you have to remember Poland remains an emerging market, even if the largest in Europe."

He said that part of Poland's success is created abroad from a growing class of professional Poles in London today.

"We must not forget about the 1 million Poles working in Britain, and others working in other European countries. They help boost the Polish economy. Some of my clients who might work on a building site are transferring betwen 500 and 1,000 pounds a month to Poland. That's as much as 5,000 Polish zlotys, so it is perhaps the equivalent of two months of earnings in Poland. For those who are professional office workers, the sums can be much higher. But I am not willing to say if Poles are earning bank bonuses worth one-million-plus! What I will say is that most of the bank bonuses are staying and being spent in Britain," he said.

Zientek said he was concerned how money might be spent if it was transferred to Poland. "I would be worried how the money might be spent in Poland. Perhaps there is a lot of waste. I would like to see the money spent on developing education, transport and energy," he said.

Also on the radio show, Alison Hope, editor of Discover Poland magazine, said there are problems with parts of the country not benefiting as much from Poland's properity. Eastern Poland is missing out, she said.

London Bridge is on Radio ORLA fm every Monday after 21:00 Polish time on www.orla.fm  

 
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